Tuesday, January 21, 2014

Kumudam Reporter 2014 Survey - Part II

This blog post in continuation with the earlier blog post on the Kumudam Reporter survey for 2014 elections. This is the English Translation of the Part-2 of the 2014 Lok Sabha pre-poll survey conducted by Kumudam Reporter Magazine and published in the issue dated 26.1.2014 (but appeared in the stands on 21.01.2014).  The website of this magazine is here . It is a paid, subscriber only magazine for online consumption. All copyrights of this survey rests with the source. The only purpose of translating the results is for the benefit of people who don't read Tamil. 

Quick Summary (my personal note) 
  1. The best ever scenario for ADMK is to have a four-way (or even 5 or 6 way) contest whereby the opposition votes split. In a four-way contest, ADMK+ manages to come on top with 34.2% vote share. So Jayalalitha will be eagerly watching for the alliances (or the lack of it) among her opponents before she announces her own strategy. 
  2. The best ever scenario for BJP is to form a mega alliance with MDMK, PMK and DMDK, which they are currently attempting. Under this scenario they can give a tough fight to ADMK+ as they are within 2% vote share of the leader, by managing to get 32.4% vote share. Even if the DMK and Congress tie-up they wont be able to beat BJP from the 2nd position in this scenario. 
  3. The best ever scenario for DMK is to form a grand alliance with DMDK and Congress. They can thwart ADMK's plans and manage to come on top with 33.2% vote share in this scenario. ADMK+ comes close with 32.9% (less by 0.3%) leading to a neck to neck fight. While DMK is already negotiating with DMDK, they also need to rope Congress in. Without congress this alliance won't be able to challenge ADMK+ in the first past post electoral system. 
  4. BJP which has had a 5% vote share at best in the past (in elections where they have not allied with any of the big Dravidian parties) but they are poised for their best  ever finish in Tamilnadu in 2014. They alone have now managed to build a 19% vote share. With a mega alliance, they can get sizable seats in the LS polls. Survey reports say this wave has less to do with BJP as a party, but is more in favour of the persona of Modi and his Development Oriented Agenda.
  5. Captain Vijayakanth's DMDK has once again proved to remain the "game changer" in Tamilnadu elections. Although they have dropped their individual vote share by about 2% from their heydays, they still remain the deciding force. Hence the frantic parlays underway by both BJP and DMK to lure captain into an alliance are completed justified.  
For more insights refer to the bottom of this blog post. 


The results for the final 2 scenarios are given below. For details of the Survey Design, Sample size, Sample Stratification etc. refer to the earlier blog post. 

Scenario-2 : Four-way contest with  DMK Alliance (DMK, VCK, PT, MMK), ADMK Alliance (ADMK, CPI, CPIM), BJP Alliance (BJP, PMK, MDMK, DMDK) and Congress. 

Scenario-3: Three-way contest with DMK-DMDK-Congress Alliance (DMK, Congress,DMDK, VCK, PT, MMK), ADMK Alliance (ADMK, CPI, CPIM), BJP Alliance (BJP, MDMK, PMK). 

Result of Scenario-2

Scenario-2 is the best case scenario for BJP where it forms a formidable alliance by roping in Vaiko led MDMK, Ramadoss led PMK and Vijayakanth led DMDK. This scenario assumes  that DMK and Congress contest separately. 

The results of this scenario show that ADMK alliance still tops the vote share (34.2%), however their vote share drops to within 2% range of a whooping 32.4% acquired by the BJP alliance, enabling a neck-to-neck fight between the two alliances. DMK alliance is pushed to third spot in this scenario with 27.9%. Congress manages to retain 5.4% in isolation.  

Among age-groups, the youth segment (18-40) is overwhelmingly supporting the BJP+ with a vote share of 35.1%, while ADMK+ comes second with a close 34.8%. DMK comes third among youth voters with 27.2%. However among the older voters (40+) ADMK+ continues to hold sway with 34.8%, while BJP+ has only 27.2%, overtaken by DMK+ with 31%.

Based on education levels, BJP+ is a huge hit among people that have completed college education with a whooping 39.4% vote share. However ADMK+ is most popular among uneducated / school dropouts with a 43.6% vote share. The worrying sign is for DMK+ which manages to get only 25.7% among those with at least a college degree. 

Based on occupation, ADMK+ manages to hold sway among Agriculturists and Labour with a 40.1% vote share, while BJP+ fares third in this segment with 23.5%. In all other occupation segments, BJP+ leads over DMK+. The worrying sign for ADMK+ is that, among the private employed people, self-employed/enterpreneurs, and unemployed (including students) BJP+ is ahead of even the ADMK+. This shows that ADMK+ tops the vote share in this scenario, mainly because of the vote of Agriculture/Labour and Government employees.

Results of Scenario-3 

This is the best case scenario for DMK, where it allies with both Vijayakanth led DMDK and Congress. The results reveal that DMK+ becomes the front runner in vote share with 33.2%, outwitting the ADMK+ which has 32.9%. However the gap of 0.3% is a close call and will result in neck to neck battle between the two alliances. In this scenario, BJP+ is pushed to third spot with a vote share of 28.1%; which is still an achievement from the past. There are 6% voters who are undecided (or NOTA) who can make the difference on the outcome.  

Regarding the age group wise analysis, the youth segment (18-40) is heading for a three way split with a close call ; ADMK+ has 31.9%, BJP+ has 30.3%, and DMK+ has 31.1%. So in some way the voting pattern of the senior voters (40+) decides the final outcome, where DMK+ (36.9%) has a 2% lead over ADMK+ (34.9%), with BJP+ dropping to 24%.

Based on education levels, ADMK+ continues to retain its whooping edge among uneducated and school dropouts with a 43.8% voteshare, whereas BJP+ is reduced to 15.7%; a distant 3rd. With a strong alliance DMK+ manages to close in on this segment with 36.9%. However despite this grand alliance of DMK+, among voters with a college degree, BJP+ continues to hold a handsome lead by topping with a 34.7% vote share. 

Based on occupation, ADMK+ see a drop in its vote bank among agriculturists and labour to 39.4%, which allows DMK+ to claw back to 37.1%. BJP+ gets only 19.4% in this segment. However among the Privately employed, Self-employed / enterpreneurs, and Unemployed (including students), BJP+ still manages to give a close fight to the other two alliances. 

So overall the results reveal the following significant insights. 
  1. BJP is up for its best performance in Tamilnadu in 2014 polls without allying with any of the two major Dravidian parties. Results show that this vote surge has less to do with BJP as a party, but due to the personal popularity of Narendra Modi and his development oriented agenda. 
  2. There is a heavy negative vote towards the UPA government. However for the DMK, allying with Congress is still important to counter the might of ADMK. 
  3. Despite three years of ADMK rule in the state, anti-incumbency has NOT set in and Jayalalitha seems to have maintained her vote share from 2011 state elections intact. Her core vote bank appears to the older voters (40+), uneducated/school dropouts, and those involved in agriculture/labour. (So one can expect more populism before the election rules come into force!). 
  4. Among demographic segments, the educated, urban youth (age 18-40), particularly the ones working in private organizations, students, self-employed, entrepreneurs appear to be the "new core" vote bank for BJP. BJP should focus on this segment and ensure these votes do not drift (to other parties including AAP) in the lead-up to the elections. 
  5. Although Captain Vijayakanth's DMDK has lost about 2% vote share from the 9% it secured in 2009 polls, it still remains the "game changer" in Tamilnadu. If DMDK allies with BJP then BJP is up for a close top-2 finish with ADMK. If DMDK allies with DMK, then DMK will be able to give a tough fight to ADMK and can even manage to outsmart Jayalalitha's ambitions at the centre.  

Friday, January 17, 2014

Kumudam Reporter 2014 Survey - Part-I

This is the English Translation of the 2014 Lok Sabha pre-poll survey conducted by Kumudam Reporter Magazine and published in the issue dated 23.1.2014 (but appeared in the stands on 17.01.2014).  The website of this magazine is here . It is a paid, subscriber only magazine for online consumption. All copyrights of this survey rests with the source. The only purpose of translating the results is for the benefit of people who don't read Tamil. 

Kumudam Reporter magazine conducted a survey across Tamilnadu between the dates 02-Jan-2014 to 05.Jan.2014. 

Sample Size & Demographics 

  • The survey covered 2000 respondents of which 73.5% were men. 
  • Among respondents, the age group 18-25 constituted 20.9%, 26-40 was 43.2%, 41-55 was 25.8%, and 56+ was the balance 10.1%. In summary, 18-40 constituted 64.1% and 40+ was 35.9% of the sample. 
  • Among respondents, people who are uneducated & did not complete school was 15.4%, people who have completed schooling was 48.6%, people who have got a degree or more was 36%. 
  • Among respondents, people who work as labour or in Agriculture constituted 21.2%, working in private organizations was 28.9%, Self-employed / Entrepreneurs were 25.7%, Government employees was 11.1%, and Students and unemployed was 13.1%. 
The survey demographics and validity of results were verified and compiled by Professor of Statistics in Madras University, Professor T.R. Gopalakrishnan. 

Survey Design 

Since the alliances in Tamilnadu are unclear at the moment, the survey asked three questions for different scenarios. The scenarios are described below. 

Scenario-1 : All parties stand on their own, without any alliance. 

Scenario-2 : Four-way contest with  DMK Alliance (DMK, VCK, PT, MMK), ADMK Alliance (ADMK, CPI, CPIM), BJP Alliance (BJP, PMK, MDMK, DMDK) and Congress. 

Scenario-3: Three-way contest with DMK-DMDK-Congress Alliance (DMK, Congress,DMDK, VCK, PT, MMK), ADMK Alliance (ADMK, CPI, CPIM), BJP Alliance (BJP, MDMK, PMK). 

Only the results of Scenario-1 have been published in this week's issue. The other two scenarios are going to be published in the subsequent issues of the magazine, and we promise to translate them for you (when they come out). 

Survey Results for Scenario-1 

The results of the overall position when each of the parties stand on its own (without any alliance) shows that ADMK (33.1%) has a 6.5% gap over DMK (26.5%) and tops the list. Vijayakanth's DMDK has been pushed to fourth position to 7.3% vote share, while the Modi effect has led to a surge in the BJP vote share to a whooping 17.8%. PMK retains fifth position with 5.1%. While Congress which once had the 3rd largest vote share has dropped to the bottom of the pile with a meager 4.3%. Vaiko's MDMK has a vote share of 2.3%. 

Not only educated voters, but even rural uneducated voters appear to be aware of Narendra Modi. Certain voters in Pudukottai district said, they have traditionally voted for the Congress, but this time we are going to vote for Modi. In several places, Christian voters were backing Modi. A certain respondent called Bhoopalraj (protestant christian) in Tuticorin said that, "If India has to progress, then we need a change, and we think Modi can deliver that change". It was surprising to observe that in Ramanathapuram district, several Muslim voters also voted for Modi. 

Many of the urban educated people complained why AAP was missing on the list and about 0.1% voted for AAP, despite that not being offered as an option. The support for AAP is spread both in urban and rural areas, among educated youth in the 18 to 40 bracket. This includes both Men & Women. Many of this AAP supporters ticked BJP in the survey. In Turicorin district some college students said they were even willing to campaign for AAP. Hence if AAP can come out with a strong state level leadership, then the damage will primarily be for the BJP in terms of vote share, given below. 

Both DMK and ADMK have voteshare that is above the overall % among the older voters in the 41+ bracket. Among this the gap is severe for DMK which has a 6% difference, compared to the 4% difference of ADMK. BJP has 15% support among older voters (41+) while has a 19.1% support among the youth voters. All the other parties (barring congress) have their youth vote share higher than older voters share. Congress has 5.5% vote share among 41+ voters while has a meagre 3.5% vote share among the youth in 18-40 bracket. 

Based on education levels, ADMK is hugely popular among the uneducated / school dropouts with a whooping 41.4% support, while DMK has 29.6% support. ADMK is relatively less popular with people who have completed school (35.3%), and even lesser with degree holders (27%). The equivalent numbers for DMK are 28.5% and 22.8%. BJP has a massive 24.1% support among people with a degree, where it overtakes DMK to the 2nd position in the state.  Both DMDK and PMK derive their support base from middle group while tapering on both sides. Congress has least popularity among the middle group. It is also worth noting that the category Others (which includes MDMK and communists) have 9.1% support among the degree holders, which is higher than PMK and DMDK. 

Regarding the occupation wise split, ADMK again has a whooping voteshare among the labour + agriculture community with 40.5%, while DMK has 30%. The gap is secularly in the range of 4 to 6% between ADMK and DMK in the other groups, with the lowest gap among the government employees. BJP has the lowest support base among labour & agriculture at 10.6%, while among other occupation groups they enjoy a 18%+ support, with its highest of ~ 20% among self-employed and entrepreneurs. DMDK and PMK both have similar pattern of support base, with their lowest to be among government employees. Congress surprisingly enjoys 6.5% support among government employees and 7.3% from self-employed voters. 

The results of the Scenario-2 and Scenario-3 will be published in the subsequent issues of the weekly. We will have the results translated, as and when they are out!

Monday, January 13, 2014

Vikatan 2014 elections Pan Tamilnadu Survey results (in English)

Many friends wanted to read an English Translation of the Survey results for 2014 elections  (across Tamilnadu) published by Tamil Magazine Vikatan dated 19th, Jan, 2014 (but published online much earlier). So I thought of helping people out by translating the same. Please note all copyrights of this article exist with the source. 
The original link in Tamil is given here. 

Which Alliance would win ? Who would be the PM in 2014? 

The election countdown has started, alliances are still uncertain, leaks of alliance discussions are triggering huge excitement ; In this situation we decided to survey people to check out on answers to questions such as "which alliance should Vijayakanth's DMDK join?", "Which is the strongest alliance? " , "Who will be the next PM?" etc. A team of 90 reporters of Junior Vikatan setout to survey people from all corners of Tamilnadu and surveyed 9174 respondents including 3402 women. Here are the results. 

Regarding DMK's decision to quit alliance with Congress, we asked people a question on what do you think about this decision ? The choices were "right decision", "wrong decision", and "crass opportunism". But over 50 percent (52%) of respondents said this is crass opportunism. This flies in the face of earlier media reports about people being broadly supportive of DMK's decision to part ways with Congress. 

Regarding the potential alliance between DMK and DMDK, about 41% of the respondents have stated that such an alliance will be called "opportunistic" and 37% had stated that such an alliance will not be acceptable to people. 

Regarding the "mega" alliance of BJP, MDMK, PMK and DMDK, about 41% had stated it to be an "alliance of contradictions". 

What will Vijayakanth do is a huge suspense before people at the moment. For this question, majority of the people (33%) said DMDK should contest alone. Further 26% said they should join hands with BJP, and 21% said they should ally with DMK. 

For the question of who should Congress appoint as their PM candidate, there was a huge reaction & anguish from people. They were angry that, when we don't like congress, why ask such a irrelevant question to us? Why haven't you given us an option of  "no comments"? However despite this limitation, among the people that answered this question, over 50% preferred Rahul to the Congress PM nominee. 

Regarding who should be the next PM,  about 48.5% voted for Narendra Modi as PM. Rahul is in second position with 15.63% votes, others at 16.19%. Despite the ADMK campaign about Jayalalitha for PM, only 12.47% voted for Jayalalitha as PM. 

For which alliance would you vote for?, BJP alliance got 40% of the votes. ADMK and DMK alliance have fairly equal votes at 22.7% and 21.77% respectively, with ADMK having a slender 1% lead. Congress got 10.21% of the votes. However during the survey we observed that there is a huge groundswell of support for the AAP, and people complained why they were not included as a choice. In fact many who ticked for the BJP alliance, complained about not having AAP as a choice. 

Understanding the Creature called AAP

What kind of a creature is AAP? Can it quickly scale-up across the nation as many media pundits seem to suggest? What are the implications to their bottom-up organization structure? Is such a structure good for the country or does it lead to major adverse side effects that have long-term implications to the country? 

Check out on answers to these questions - in my post on CRI website. Click here